Swiss Re: US tariffs would slow insurance premium growth

According to the Swiss Re Institute's latest sigma study, the US government's increase in tariffs would slow global economic growth. This slowdown is expected to have an impact on global premium growth, which would fall from 5.2% in 2024, to 2% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026.

Global GDP is expected to slow to 2.3% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, from 2.8% in 2024.

After a 6.1% turnover growth in 2024, the life insurance sector would fall to 1% before rising again to 2.4% in 2026.

Intensifying competition in personal lines and softening market conditions in commercial lines would result in a lower rise in non-life premiums, from 4.7% in 2024 to 2.6% a year later.

However, Swiss Re maintains a positive outlook for insurers' profitability, thanks to continued improvement in investment income.

The impact of higher tariffs on the insurance sector will vary from region to region. The United States, the world's largest insurance market, will be the hardest hit.