Regional economies face billions in losses amid ongoing Middle East war

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has released a report assessing the economic and social impact of the military escalation in the Middle East, which has been ongoing since 28 February 2026.

According to the report, the conflict could trigger a contraction in regional GDP of between 3.7% and 6%, translating into estimated losses ranging from 120 to 194 billion USD.

These economic costs are expected to fall most heavily on countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the Near East, where high exposure to trade disruptions and volatility in energy markets is driving sharp declines in production, investment, and trade.

North Africa, by contrast, is projected to experience more limited effects, with some countries potentially offsetting losses through gains linked to rising energy prices.

While the relative impact on Sudan and Yemen may be smaller in percentage terms, it would remain substantial given their already fragile economic conditions.

The report also warns that nearly 3.7 million jobs could be lost, and around 4 million people may fall into poverty as a result of the conflict.